Cardinals Takeaways 6-3-15

Posted on June 3, 2015 by Hans A. Carpenter

The Cardinals looked to finish off the Brewers at home as they split the first two games, both of which ended 1-0. Veteran John Lackey took the mound for the Red Birds, while youngster Jimmy Nelson took the hill for the Brew Crew. The final result was a 7-4 Cardinal victory.

Takeaways

The bats came alive, as every starting fielder for the Cardinals save for Kolten Wong and Matt Holliday had at least one RBI. Carpenter, Molina, and Peralta all had multi-hit games.

John Lackey had a quality start, tossing 7 innings with 3 earned runs and 5 strikeouts. He continues to step up as the veteran horse with Adam Wainwright out for the season.

Trevor Rosenthal now has 17 saves, which is one less than the Brewers have wins (18). Let that sink in.

There was a scary moment in the sixth inning as Hector Gomez flew into the stands while catching a fly ball and landed face down on the stadium steps. He was attended to in the crowd for several minutes by trainers before leaving the game on his own power. Two Brewers ended up in the stands during Tuesday’s game. This may be a part of the game MLB needs to look into.

On Yonder Horizon…

Michael Wacha (7-1, 2.27 ERA) will take on Carlos Frias (4-2, 4.29 ERA) as the Cardinals head to LA for a series with the Dodgers. The game starts 9:10. Thanks west coast.

Who’s On First: Outside Options to Replace Matt Adams

Posted on June 3, 2015 by Hans A. Carpenter

The popular thing since Matt Adams went down with a torn quad has been to take a look at possible replacements for Big City in the Cardinals lineup. In all fairness, had his production continued (.243/.281/.375) into July, we would be having this conversation then. As things stand, we’re having it early. The only but in this conversation is that Mark Reynolds (.259/.325/.393) gets the month of June to prove he can hold down the first base job. Reynolds has been serviceable thus far, and there is no rush to get something done. Still, it doesn’t hurt to mull over options, as I’m sure John Mozelaik is doing. Let’s take a look at the options in tiers:

Role Players

There’s nothing wrong with patching up a hole in the lineup with role players, as the success of the Pirates and A’s over the last few years show us. With a strong lineup and strong outfield depth, patching up first base with a compliment to Reynolds isn’t the worst idea in the world, especially considering the relatively low cost both in money and trade of picking up a player like:

Ike Davis, Athletics

.282/.348/.427 in 103 AB’s

• Davis once looked to be a promising player in New York, but has settled into more of a platoon player of the last two years. Of his 103 AB’s, 95 have come against lefties, against whom he has a .775 OPS. Davis is the type of name you typically see on the transaction ticker.

Justin Smoak, Blue Jays

.266/.356/.438 in 64 AB’s

• Smoak, like Davis, is a former top prospect who has settled into a platoon role. The switch hitter has seen left handed pitching only 3 times all season, and is has a .794 OPS and 3 homers against right-handed pitching. Smoak is in the same service class and price range as Davis.

Logan Morrison, Mariners

.240/.320/.385

• Third on the fallen prospect train is Logan Morrison, who at one point looked to be Giancarlo Stanton’s long-term lineup protection, is in Seattle now. He’s been serviceable, but unspectacular. He does have a .795 OPS against right handed pitching with 6 homers though. Not an ideal fit, but a possible useful player.

Seth Smith, Mariners

.262/.325/.489

• Seth Smith is the poster boy for platoons, with a lifetime .837. He can also play the corner outfield spots. He’s also owed $8 million, including the buyout on his 2016 option. It’s a steep price to pay for a part time player. He can play the outfield, is coming off a 4 WAR season and has been worth 1 WAR so far this year, so he’s worth a look. Seattle may not be ready to give up on a playoff birth or sacrifice a player they control next year, though.

Adam Lind, Brewers

.278/.359/.500 in 162 AB’s

• It may seem like a head scratching choice to list Lind among the role players, but his extreme platoon splits have rendered Lind a part time player at this point. He may be the Cadillac of platoon guys, but a platoon guy nonetheless, as Lind has mashed right handed pitching with a .290/.373/.536 line with 8 homers. Still, he has a .561 OPS against lefties, plays for a division rival, and may be a popular name on the trade market thanks to his pop. He may not be an ideal fit, and the idea of the Cardinals exercising his 8 million dollar option for next year in a hypothetical trade is questionable.

Buy-Low Starters

Chris Davis, Orioles

.227/.313/.500 in 172 AB’s

• Chris Davis is two years removed from a 53 homer season, which was good for 3^rd place in the AL MVP race. So why is Davis in the buy low category? He followed that MVP caliber season with a .195/.300/.404 line in 2014. In 2015, the power has been there, with 12 homers and a .500 SLG, but the OBP is still down, and he’s leading the league in K’s with 70. With the Orioles falling further down the ladder, it makes sense that they would entertain offers for the impending free agent. A qualifying offer seems to be a bit of a gamble at this point, but it certainly isn’t 100% off the table for the O’s, which clouds what kind of trade value Davis has with a first round pick possibly hanging over his head at season’s end.

Mike Napoli, Red Sox

.208/.323/.403

•When he’s firing on all cylinders, Napoli is a dangerous hitter. He also has a sterling post-season reputation, as the Cardinals saw first with the Rangers in 2011 and later with the Red Sox in 2013. Still, Napoli is trending downward over the last two years. His power was down in 2014, but he still managed 17 long balls and a .370 OBP. This year, Napoli has 8 homers but is hitting just a shade above the Mendoza line. He can still walk, but with health questions and contact struggles Napoli is no lock to be productive so the price must be right.

Brandon Moss

.239/.310/.454

• This name may be forced off the list by team play soon, as a recent hot streak may have pushed the Indians back onto the edge of contention. If they slip back to the bottom, Brandon Moss may be had. Is he much to write home about? No, he isn’t. He is, however, a competent major league hitter who has averaged roughly 2 WAR over the last three seasons. In 2015, Moss has 8 homers, but a less than inspiring .310 OBP. He has extensive experience in the corner outfield, which is a plus, and is controllable in 2016.

Outside the Box

While I’m not wild about the idea of moving the guy yet again, these two names would be upgrades that would slot in comfortably at the hot corner. Again, not my first choice, but an idea to consider.

Martin Prado 3B, Marlins

.284/.318/.370

• Prado hasn’t been himself at the plate over the last two years, but he is still a competent hitter who plays quality defense at 3^rd. He also can play 2^nd and the outfield, which would give Mike Matheny plenty of rest flexibility and insurance incase of injury to Kolten Wong. Is Prado a middle of the order thumper? No, but he is a versatile, quality player. One bit of pause may come from the $11 million owed to him next year ($3 million of which will be paid by the Yankees), but depending on his production that one could go either way.

Adrian Beltr, Rangers

.257/.295/.408

• Name value aside, this potential deal has many causes for pause. First, look at Beltre’s .702 OPS. It’s very un-Beltre-like. He’s 36. He’s owed $18 million next year. He’s on the DL. Like I said, very many “uh oh” moments. Still, he’s Adrian Beltre! He’s still an elite glove at the hot corner, and would give the Cardinals an imposing defensive infield with the sure handed Jhonny Peralta sandwiched between the rangy Beltre and Wong. Beltre is on a five-year tear in the AL, with a .879 OPS as recently as last year. It’s a gamble for sure, it’s one of the riskiest propositions on this list. However, it also has lots of upside.

Slash! Splash! Splash!

The next three names are the type of big splash deals the Cardinals rarely do, but both would be a permanent solution at 1^st.

Edwin Ecarnacion, Blue Jays

.216/.300/.437

• By the measure of his last few years, Encarnacion is having a down year. He’s basically been a right-handed Chris Davis with less strikeouts. So why is he in the splash section and not bounce back? Over the last four years, Encarnacion has torn through the AL and been one of the most consistently effective middle of the order hitters in the game. For three strait years he has posted an OPS over .900, and he has an affordable option for next season at $10 million. For those reasons, the Blue Jays will have no shortage of interest if and when they make Encarnacion available and they certainly will not give him away.

Carlos Santana, Indians

.227/.381/.383

• Is Carlos Santana going to win a batting title? No, likely not. Consider this: he led the AL in walks in 2014 with 113 and is doing so again in 2015 with 39. In short, Santana is an on-base machine. He has pop, is a switch hitter, and is in his prime at age 29. He is under team control for two more years at team-friendly pricing. For those reasons, and the Indians’ recent play, it seems unlikely that Santana is available. If he is, he won’t come cheap. Still, he’d look good in red.

Prince Fielder, Rangers

.359/.412/.563

• There is around a 0.000000000000001% chance of this deal ever going down, but if you squint just right it’s barely outside of the realm of insanity. Fielder is on a tear, and while the Rangers are currently above .500 the safe bet is that they are sellers by July. That being said, Fielder is coming off an injury year, there are legit questions about how long he can remain in the field, and he’s owed $24 million over the next five years. Oh, and he’s 31. The comfort comes from knowing the Tigers are paying $6 million of his salary each year, making him essentially a $90 million dollar player. In today’s money, that isn’t that bad. Still, it’s not going to happen. He’d be the kind of bat that would change everything, though.

Cardinals Takeaways 6-2-15

Posted on June 3, 2015 by Hans A. Carpenter

The Cardinals came into this game looking to avenge a 1-0 loss, as Matt Holliday looked to extend his on-base streak to 46 games. One of those two goals was met, as the Cardinals won 1-0.

The Takeaways

The streak is dead. Matt Holliday’s on-base streak was ended at 45 games, and his night ended in controversial fashion as he was ejected in the 7^th inning for arguing balls and strikes. Was he likely to get another AB? No, not likely, but it’s still sad to see the streak end in controversy. Which leads me to my next point…

Of course it was Joe West! No umpire in the big leagues, with the exception of Angel Hernandez, has more of a reputation for injecting himself into game play than “Cowboy” Joe West. If you know an umpire’s name, it’s never for a good reason and nobody exemplifies that idea more than Joe West. Mike Matheny was also tossed after he came out to defend Holliday, who was walking towards the dugout at the time of the ejection. In nearly six years of Holliday suiting up for the Cardinals, that was the angriest I’ve ever seen him.

Lance Lynn was fantastic. 7 and 2/3 innings, 5 K’s vs 1 BB and 5 hits. Not too shabby. With close to 120 pitches, Mike Mathey shows again a faith to let Lynn pitch deep. Lynn finished the day with a season record of 4-4 with a 3.03 ERA.

The Brewers rode the Cravy train, but it stopped just short. Tyler Cravy gave up two hits to Randal Grichuk, one of which lead to an RBI for Mark Reynolds. Otherwise, Cravy was great in his first big league start, going 7 innings with 1 ER and 6 K’s.

On Yonder Horizon…

John Lackey (3-3, 2.83 ERA) looks to continue being the Cardinal’s veteran horse as he takes on Brewers youngster Jimmy Nelson (2-5, 3.90 ERA). This is the last game of the series with the Brewers, after which the Cardinals have the Dodgers to deal with.

Cardinals Takeaways 6-1-15

Posted on June 2, 2015 by Hans A. Carpenter

Game one of the three game set with the Brew Crew ended in a 1-0 shutout, with the Cardinals offense unable to convert runners to runs. Here are the takeaways from this disappointing game:

10- the number of runners the Cardinals stranded. The team went 0-6 with runners in scoring position, and were unable to turn two men on-base in the 9^th into walk-off magic.

Jaime Garcia did his part. The control was there, as Garcia again failed to allow a free pass. Otherwise, he had 5 strikeouts and 3 hits scattered across 7 quality innings, with a low pitch count to boot. An RBI single by Carlos Gomez ended up the only run scored the entire game.

Matt Carpenter can’t hit Mike Fiers, and this lineup looks totally different without Carpenter driving it.

Kolten Wong can play second base. In the 8^th inning, Wong had an incredible leaping catch followed by laser-beam throw on a comeback shot that ricocheted off the mound. Youtube it, it’s worth it.

Jason Heyward came dangerously close to being picked off at second in the bottom of the 9^th. After an uncomfortably long review following a Brewer’s challenge, the “safe” call on the field was upheld.

Holliday On-Base Watch: 45 games.

On Yonder Horizon…

Lance Lynn (3-4, 3.41 ERA) will take the mound against…well…somebody. The Brewers rotation has been thrown into disarray thanks to a 17 inning marathon Sunday which forced tonight’s original starter, Matt Garza, to pitch in relief. As a result, Mike Fiers was pushed up a day and the identity of Lance Lynn’s counterpart is yet to be announced.

Cardinals Takeaways 5-31-15

Posted on June 2, 2015 by Hans A. Carpenter

Sunday’s series with the Dodgers finally ended 3-1, as the Cards take 2 out of 3 for the series win. The Redbirds finished the weekend winning 6 of their last 7 games on the back of characteristically strong starting pitching.

Takeaways:

Sunday’s game featured a tribute to the late Oscar Tavares, who tragically passed away along with his girlfriend in a car accident in October. The game marked the one-year anniversary of Tavares’ big league debut, in which he homered in his first major league at bat.

Carlos Martinez showed the world just what he is made of. On a day with a touching tribute to his close friend, Oscar Tavares, Martinez dominated the Dodgers lineup. He threw seven shutout innings giving up one hit and four walks while striking out eight. To pitch that well on such an emotional day shows what kind a competitor that is Carlos Martinez. It was a fitting tribute for his friend. It also marked his third straight excellent start following a rough start to the month. In fact, Martinez has a 20 1/3 inning scoreless streak at the moment. His season stat line: 5-2 with a 3.13 ERA (3.87 FIP), 9.5 K/9 and 4 BB/9.

Jhonny Peralta hit a two-run homer that gave the Cardinals the lead in the first inning. His season batting line: .310/.370/.519 with 8 homers and 30 RBI good for a 2.0 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. He’s been good. Very, very good.

Even sick, Matt Holliday gets on-base. Holliday came out of the game in the fourth inning due to illness, according to Fox Sports. Still, a walk keeps the franchise record on-base streak alive at 44 games and counting. His OBP currently sits at a pristine .434.

Injuries and illness have kept Randal Grichuk in the starting lineup, and he has entrenched himself. With the way he’s playing, it would be hard to take him out. Over 66 plate appearances this year, Grichuk has an .874 OPS (one point under Holliday’s .875) along with a string of highlight reel defensive plays (did anyone catch the robbed home run on Saturday…wow). Is Jimmy Ballgame’s number 15 rubbing off on the youngster? Grichuk went 1-4 on Sunday.

These takeaways have been all dessert, so here are your veggies. Base running continues to be an issue for the Red Birds. Both Peter Bourjos and Jason Heyward were picked off Sunday. Ponder this; the Cardinals came into the season with three clear threats on the base paths, Bourjos, Heyward, and Kolten Wong. Their steals vs. caught stealing for the year: 13/10. That’s just plain awful. Wong is an even 4/4, Bourjos 4/5. Heyward is the only one with a decent ratio at 5/1. Steal all you want, just quit getting caught.

Out yonder on the horizon…

The Brewers are rolling into town, and boy howdy are they bad. The 17-34 Crew will roll out Mike Fiers (1-5, 4.35 ERA) while the Cards counter with Jaime Garcia (1-1, 3.46 ERA), who is looking to build on his two strong starts since returning from injury. Game time is 7:05.